The Fastline Blog

Monday, November 9, 2009:

Combines were rolling all across the Plains, Corn Belt and Delta throughout this past weekend, and for most of those same areas it will be a while before harvesting is shut down again for any real length of time. Later today through early tomorrow could feature a band of rain across eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and northern sections of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but rainfall amounts and coverage there look light. Ida will be making landfall tomorrow (my guess is that it will be down to tropical storm strength at that time, though currently there are hurricane warnings posted for the coastal areas of Mississippi through the Florida panhandle), but it is tracking far enough east that the bulk of the Delta will be spared the rain from that system. Largely dry weather is forecast for Wednesday through Friday, though by Friday there will be some rain chances in the northern Plains and the far northwestern Corn Belt. More widespread rainfall chances look possible for the second half of the coming weekend through early next week, though there are huge model differences on how that weather system will evolve so I have no opinions yet on rainfall amounts and who might get the rain/who might miss the rain.

My guess though is that particularly big amounts with big coverage will not be seen, and I also doubt that system will mark the start of a return to the wet conditions that we saw in October. There is certainly a lack of cold air in the forecast for the next two weeks as well, and this comes after a very warm weekend that featured scattered record highs being set in the Plains and extreme northern Corn Belt. While it looks warmer than normal throughout the Nation’s midsection for all of this week, clearly it will be the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt where the warming is the most dramatic. Temperatures in those areas this week will likely average more than 15 degrees above normal, with Wednesday and Thursday being the peak of that warmth. It will cool a bit for the weekend, but the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt in particular look exceptionally warm again next week (certainly lessening chances of major snowfall events in those areas any time soon!). For this afternoon’s harvest progress report, I would look for the national soybean harvest to be 75 percent done, with the corn harvest at 36 percent complete.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved

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Friday, November 6, 2009:

I think that there are a lot of details to be worked out in regards to how the weather plays out exactly next week (mainly as it pertains to tropical weather coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and how it influences the weather in the Lower 48, particularly for the Delta and Southeast), but I have to admit that it is very difficult to come up with any scenario in which the Plains and at least the central and western Corn Belt (and quite possibly all of the Corn Belt) gets real wet again next week. The best weather of the fall season still looks to continue through the weekend, with no rain, breezy conditions, and some exceptionally warm temperatures. There are going to be a lot of high temperatures this weekend that top out on either side of the 70 degree mark. Temperatures should easily average above normal through about Thursday of next week as well, meaning that the next seven days will feature temperatures that average some ten to fifteen degrees above normal for especially the western Corn Belt as well as the central and northern Plains. There is still a rainfall threat for early next week, but it still looks to be a weak system, a quick moving system, and a system starved for moisture (as everything is trapped in the Gulf of Mexico with weather systems there).

Rains in the western Corn Belt for Monday and in the eastern Corn Belt for Tuesday should be largely a quarter inch or less, and there will be plenty of locations that get nothing at all. That should be followed by about three days of dry weather before rain chances again arrive for next weekend. How that weather system plays out is highly uncertain, but I am not getting any indications that the storm at that time would be especially strong (particularly for the western Corn Belt and Plains). There are not indications of big storms beyond next weekend either. Just beyond mid-month, the warmest temperatures (with respect to normal) likely will be in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Plains; something that make me less worried about the potential for any big snows for that area any time soon. For the Midwest, this is about as good as it can get as far as November weather is concerned. Given the type of weather that area had in October…all that I can say is, “It’s about time!”

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved

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Thursday, Novemeber 5, 2009:

We remain in the middle of the best stretch of harvest weather that we have seen so far this fall, and the weather forecast for next week continues to look more and more optimistic towards continued good harvest progress taking place during that time period. Except for the extreme eastern Corn Belt (where there are a few very light showers in the vicinity of Lake Erie), all of the major corn and soybean growing areas of the Nation were dry on this Thursday, and it looks like it is going to stay that way for all of today…and tomorrow…and Saturday…and most places on Sunday as well! With temperatures turning much warmer today in the Plains and western Corn Belt and overspreading all of the Corn Belt and Delta for tomorrow, this is about as good as it gets as far as November weather is concerned. On Sunday we could start to see some light rains develop in the far northwestern Corn Belt as our next weather system starts to move into the Nation’s midsection.

Weather models though continue to be less and less impressive on the rainfall totals from that system for the Plains and most of the Corn Belt. It should be a quick mover, and look for most places in those areas to get less than a quarter of an inch (Monday in the western Corn Belt, Tuesday in the east). It will probably be the Delta and Southeast that get the bigger rains for Monday/Tuesday of next week, with tropical influences playing a role there. That said, major soybean areas of the Delta most likely will escape without seeing real heavy rain (still some uncertainty on that, given the erratic nature of tropical weather systems). Beyond what early week rain falls, we should see at least another three days of dry (and warm) weather for the Plains, Corn Belt and Delta to allow for a quick resumption of harvesting. The way things are shaping up, there may not be too many soybeans left to harvest by the time we get to around November 13. We will likely see a weather system impacting the Nation’s midsection for the weekend of November 14-15; a long ways off obviously, but current indications suggest that system to produce light to moderate amounts.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved 

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Wednesday, November 4, 2009:

Rain was found over the past 24 hours across much of the northeastern half to two-thirds of the Corn Belt (with rain early on this Wednesday still scattered across areas east of the Mississippi River). A lot of this activity was no more than sprinkles, but we did see a few places (Rochester and La Crosse among them) that got a tenth of an inch or a little more. Additional rain today in the eastern Corn Belt is largely this morning and should be no more than additional sprinkles or a few hundredths of an inch. Overall we are looking at some very good weather for getting fieldwork done for all of the Nation’s midsection through the end of this week. A couple spots may get a sprinkle on Friday, but I think that the vast majority of locations get no rain at all from later today through much of Sunday. Temperatures are also really going to be warming up tomorrow in the western Corn Belt and Plains, and above-normal temperatures will dominate much of the middle part of the Nation for Friday through quite possibly a good part of the work-week period of next week. We have better news on the rainfall outlook for next week, as the weather system of early next week looks weaker. We could start to see some rain in the far northwestern and western Corn Belt late on Sunday, but it still looks to be mainly a Monday/Tuesday event. The rain should move pretty quickly (probably less than a 24-hour rainfall threat at any one given location), with that rapid movement and the weaker overall system likely keeping most rainfall totals in the 0.25-0.50 inch range (versus thoughts yesterday that some places would be able to gauge more than an inch). I would think that this would be followed by several days (at least three?) with dry weather before rain chances again roll in for the following weekend. Beyond that, I am hopeful for more dry weather for especially November 16 and beyond. Look for that time period to feature a turn to colder conditions for the southern and eastern United States, and that will likely be where most of the precipitation is found as well.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved

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Tuesday, November 3, 2009:

Like last week, the national soybean harvest progress number released this past Monday was not the lowest figure of the last thirty years, but it was very close. At 51 percent done as of November 1, the soybean harvest pace this year is faster than only the 50 percent completion mark of November 1, 1984. For the corn harvest, the pace this year is easily the slowest of the past 30 years. Just 25 percent of the Nation’s corn had been cut as of this past Sunday; prior to this year, the lowest amount cut on that date over the past 30 years was 44 percent in 1992. There is little doubt that the worst of the delays are in Illinois. That state saw rain on six of seven days from October 26 to November 1, so it easy to see why just two percent of the soybeans and five percent of the corn was harvested there last week. Illinois was barely a third done with the soybean harvest as of November 1, a time when normally most farmers there are wrapping up that harvest. It is the second slowest soybean harvest on record for Illinois (the lowest was 21 percent…set way back in 1941!).

 The corn harvest in Illinois had not even reached the 20 percent completion mark as of this past Sunday, versus the five-year average that is approaching 90 percent done. It is the third slowest Illinois corn harvest on record (since 1940) and the slowest since 1967. We are going to see all of these numbers be a good deal higher next Monday, as clearly Mother Nature is giving us our best week of harvest weather so far this fall (not exactly a bold statement, given how bad this fall’s weather has been; many states in the Nation’s midsection recorded by far their wettest October on record, with temperatures among the coldest ever recorded in that month). I think that the national soybean harvest progress number will be in the 70-75 percent completion range for next Monday’s report (which would still make this year among the slowest ever). With farmers concentrating on the soybean harvest and with this year’s corn crop so wet, corn harvest progress for next Monday’s report will be slower but I think that figure can be in the 35-40 percent range. Harvesting progress will slow again next week though, with a significant storm system likely impacting much of the Nation’s midsection for November 9-10.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved

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