Weather and Market Commentary- July 31, 2009
July 31, 2009 by sabrina829
Friday, July 31, 2009:
Temperatures in the Midwest will end the month of July averaging at least four degrees below normal (a large part of the region will end the month with temperatures averaging five or even six degrees below normal), which will easily make this one of the coldest (if not THE coldest) Julys ever recorded for the region. Such temperatures have created the inevitable speculation regarding what they mean for final corn and soybean yields, and if those temperatures mean anything with regards to early frost chances in September. If one goes by just our three most recent years with very cool July weather, one has to be very optimistic about long-term crop prospects. The three most recent years with very cool July temperatures were 1992, 1994, and 2004. In all three of those years, national corn and soybean yields established new records. Such records were attainable due to the fact crops were not hurt in any of those years by a frost in September. The biggest difference that I can find between the crops in those years and those of this year is how early they were planted.
For example, in the three years I am discussing here this morning, we were at least 64 percent done (and as high as 85 percent done) with corn planting on a national basis on May 10; this year, we were only 48 percent done by that date. How much were corn and soybean yields good in 1992, 1994, and 2004 simply because the crops were planted early, and how much of that was due to cool July weather and a lack of a September frost? That is obviously a difficult question to answer. The fact that traders seem to be worried about the potential for a September frost leads me to believe that most feel that this year’s crops are made, which I think is a bit hasty here on the last day of July. After all, August is the month when the soybean crop is “made”, and a lot of the Corn Belt could really use a good “drink” right now. I still think that a weather system moving through the region from tonight through early Sunday produces very meager amounts in the region; anyone getting more than a third of an inch should consider themselves lucky. The best rainfall chances coming up will likely be in the 6-10 day time frame, as warmer air moving in from the west and southwest clashes with cool air in the Great Lakes. However, the timing, amounts, and coverage of that rain is uncertain. Temperatures will stay cool in the Midwest over the next week with readings largely averaging four to eight degrees below normal (coolest in the north and east). Warming is seen behind that, with the second week of the two- week forecast featuring temperatures a solid distance above normal for especially areas west of Interstate 35.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
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Weather and Market Commentary- July 31, 2009
July 31, 2009 by sabrina829
Friday, July 31, 2009:
Temperatures in the Midwest will end the month of July averaging at least four degrees below normal (a large part of the region will end the month with temperatures averaging five or even six degrees below normal), which will easily make this one of the coldest (if not THE coldest) Julys ever recorded for the region. Such temperatures have created the inevitable speculation regarding what they mean for final corn and soybean yields, and if those temperatures mean anything with regards to early frost chances in September. If one goes by just our three most recent years with very cool July weather, one has to be very optimistic about long-term crop prospects. The three most recent years with very cool July temperatures were 1992, 1994, and 2004. In all three of those years, national corn and soybean yields established new records. Such records were attainable due to the fact crops were not hurt in any of those years by a frost in September. The biggest difference that I can find between the crops in those years and those of this year is how early they were planted.
For example, in the three years I am discussing here this morning, we were at least 64 percent done (and as high as 85 percent done) with corn planting on a national basis on May 10; this year, we were only 48 percent done by that date. How much were corn and soybean yields good in 1992, 1994, and 2004 simply because the crops were planted early, and how much of that was due to cool July weather and a lack of a September frost? That is obviously a difficult question to answer. The fact that traders seem to be worried about the potential for a September frost leads me to believe that most feel that this year’s crops are made, which I think is a bit hasty here on the last day of July. After all, August is the month when the soybean crop is “made”, and a lot of the Corn Belt could really use a good “drink” right now. I still think that a weather system moving through the region from tonight through early Sunday produces very meager amounts in the region; anyone getting more than a third of an inch should consider themselves lucky. The best rainfall chances coming up will likely be in the 6-10 day time frame, as warmer air moving in from the west and southwest clashes with cool air in the Great Lakes. However, the timing, amounts, and coverage of that rain is uncertain. Temperatures will stay cool in the Midwest over the next week with readings largely averaging four to eight degrees below normal (coolest in the north and east). Warming is seen behind that, with the second week of the two- week forecast featuring temperatures a solid distance above normal for especially areas west of Interstate 35.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
To Return to Fastline.com- Click Here
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