Weather and Market Commentary- August 4, 2009
August 4, 2009 by sabrina829
Tuesday, August 4, 2009:
Maybe the corn and soybean markets will treat the fact that this year’s crops are late in maturing as “old news”, but to me the crop progress data released on Monday should be a real wake-up call with regards to how late the first frost needs to be this year for the crops to make it to maturity. Last year at this time we had the corn and soybean markets extremely nervous about how late the crops were, and yet this week’s data shows that this year’s crops are just as late…or even later! 76 percent of this year’s corn crop was starting to silk as of August 2, which is three percentage points slower than even the slow pace of a year ago. 14 percent of the corn crop had reached the dough stage, less than half what is “normally” seen this time of year and one percentage point behind a year ago. Agronomists will tell you that it takes about 60 days for corn to reach the black layer (and thus safe from frost) once it reaches the silking stage. 60 days from August 2 is October 1, and on that date it looks like almost one-quarter of the U.S. corn crop will not be ready for a frost. The situation in soybeans is not a lot better, with the crop maturity at basically the same pace as a year ago on a national basis.
Agronomists say that it takes 51 days for soybeans to reach maturity once they begin to set pods. 51 days from August 2 is September 22, and by that date we would still have 64 percent of the Nation’s soybean crop vulnerable to a frost (versus the normal of 46 percent)…including over 75 percent of the crop in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Like last year, the first frost this year needs to hold off until at least October 1…or we will see crop losses in September. Warmer than normal temperatures for especially August 8 and beyond will be helpful in pushing crops faster towards maturity. August 10 to 15 will likely be the hottest time frame for especially areas west of Interstate 35, with readings in that period potentially around 10 degrees above normal. Such heat will only be welcome though if it can be preceded by rain, as too many areas of the Corn Belt were drier than normal in July to allow the crops to withstand such heat without problems. It does as appear as though most spots will indeed pick up needed moisture this week prior to the arrival of next week’s warmth.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
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Weather and Market Commentary- August 4, 2009
August 4, 2009 by sabrina829
Tuesday, August 4, 2009:
Maybe the corn and soybean markets will treat the fact that this year’s crops are late in maturing as “old news”, but to me the crop progress data released on Monday should be a real wake-up call with regards to how late the first frost needs to be this year for the crops to make it to maturity. Last year at this time we had the corn and soybean markets extremely nervous about how late the crops were, and yet this week’s data shows that this year’s crops are just as late…or even later! 76 percent of this year’s corn crop was starting to silk as of August 2, which is three percentage points slower than even the slow pace of a year ago. 14 percent of the corn crop had reached the dough stage, less than half what is “normally” seen this time of year and one percentage point behind a year ago. Agronomists will tell you that it takes about 60 days for corn to reach the black layer (and thus safe from frost) once it reaches the silking stage. 60 days from August 2 is October 1, and on that date it looks like almost one-quarter of the U.S. corn crop will not be ready for a frost. The situation in soybeans is not a lot better, with the crop maturity at basically the same pace as a year ago on a national basis.
Agronomists say that it takes 51 days for soybeans to reach maturity once they begin to set pods. 51 days from August 2 is September 22, and by that date we would still have 64 percent of the Nation’s soybean crop vulnerable to a frost (versus the normal of 46 percent)…including over 75 percent of the crop in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Like last year, the first frost this year needs to hold off until at least October 1…or we will see crop losses in September. Warmer than normal temperatures for especially August 8 and beyond will be helpful in pushing crops faster towards maturity. August 10 to 15 will likely be the hottest time frame for especially areas west of Interstate 35, with readings in that period potentially around 10 degrees above normal. Such heat will only be welcome though if it can be preceded by rain, as too many areas of the Corn Belt were drier than normal in July to allow the crops to withstand such heat without problems. It does as appear as though most spots will indeed pick up needed moisture this week prior to the arrival of next week’s warmth.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
To Return to Fastline.com- Click Here
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