Weather and Market Commentary- September 1, 2009
September 1, 2009 by sabrina829
Tuesday, September 1, 2009:
There is no disputing that this year’s corn crop is late, but it is probably best to get a handle on how this lateness compares to other years, and to determine how late the first frost needs to be to get the majority of this crop to full maturity. With respect to other years, I will still call this crop as the fourth slowest in better than two decades. At 32 percent denting this week, the national crop is maturing at a faster clip than only 1992 (30 percent denting as of August 30 of that year), 1993 (29%), and 1996 (29%). For individual states though, I show this year’s crops as THE slowest for the past two decades for Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin; tied with 1993 as the slowest in South Dakota; and the second slowest ever in Minnesota (surpassed only by the 1993 crop). We can use denting data to help determine how many days behind normal the crops are in maturing, and thus determine how late the first frost needs to be to get crops to maturity. Let’s use Illinois as an example. That state had 26 percent of its corn crop in the denting stage on August 30.
The 5-year average denting pace in Illinois was 23 percent on August 9 and 40 percent on August 16, so it looks like the crop has been 26 percent denting on average over the past 5 years on about August 11. In other words, it looks like this year’s corn crop in Illinois is maturing about 19 days later (August 11 versus August 30) than it has on average over the past 5 years…and gives us a clear indication of just how late the first frost needs to be this fall in that state to get its crop to maturity. Other major producing states are anywhere from 5 to 6 days behind the 5-year average (Nebraska, Ohio), to 9 to 10 days behind (Iowa and Missouri), to 14-17 days behind (South Dakota, Indiana, Minnesota). The state that is the furthest behind normal? Clearly it is North Dakota. That state has averaged two percent of its corn crop in the denting stage over the past five years as of August 9…and yet had just one percent at that stage on August 30. In other words…the North Dakota corn crop is more than THREE WEEKS behind the 5-year average in maturing this year, and the frost may have to be that late to get all of their crop to full maturity. For the Nation as a whole, I would call the crop as maturing about eleven days later than the five-year average. These are some pretty sobering statistic here as we enter the month of September, but at least it does still look like the region will remain frost-free through the middle of the month.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
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Weather and Market Commentary- September 1, 2009
September 1, 2009 by sabrina829
Tuesday, September 1, 2009:
There is no disputing that this year’s corn crop is late, but it is probably best to get a handle on how this lateness compares to other years, and to determine how late the first frost needs to be to get the majority of this crop to full maturity. With respect to other years, I will still call this crop as the fourth slowest in better than two decades. At 32 percent denting this week, the national crop is maturing at a faster clip than only 1992 (30 percent denting as of August 30 of that year), 1993 (29%), and 1996 (29%). For individual states though, I show this year’s crops as THE slowest for the past two decades for Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin; tied with 1993 as the slowest in South Dakota; and the second slowest ever in Minnesota (surpassed only by the 1993 crop). We can use denting data to help determine how many days behind normal the crops are in maturing, and thus determine how late the first frost needs to be to get crops to maturity. Let’s use Illinois as an example. That state had 26 percent of its corn crop in the denting stage on August 30.
The 5-year average denting pace in Illinois was 23 percent on August 9 and 40 percent on August 16, so it looks like the crop has been 26 percent denting on average over the past 5 years on about August 11. In other words, it looks like this year’s corn crop in Illinois is maturing about 19 days later (August 11 versus August 30) than it has on average over the past 5 years…and gives us a clear indication of just how late the first frost needs to be this fall in that state to get its crop to maturity. Other major producing states are anywhere from 5 to 6 days behind the 5-year average (Nebraska, Ohio), to 9 to 10 days behind (Iowa and Missouri), to 14-17 days behind (South Dakota, Indiana, Minnesota). The state that is the furthest behind normal? Clearly it is North Dakota. That state has averaged two percent of its corn crop in the denting stage over the past five years as of August 9…and yet had just one percent at that stage on August 30. In other words…the North Dakota corn crop is more than THREE WEEKS behind the 5-year average in maturing this year, and the frost may have to be that late to get all of their crop to full maturity. For the Nation as a whole, I would call the crop as maturing about eleven days later than the five-year average. These are some pretty sobering statistic here as we enter the month of September, but at least it does still look like the region will remain frost-free through the middle of the month.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
To Return to Fastline.com- Click Here
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