Weather and Market Commentary- September 3, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary- September 3, 2009

September 3, 2009 by sabrina829

Thursday, September 3, 2009:

Temperatures still look to be a non-issue for the Nation’s midsection over the next two weeks. This is not an overly warm weather pattern coming up (except for the Northern Plains and Canadian prairies, where temperatures for especially the next five days will be averaging well above normal), but clearly one that lacks any frost threats for at least the next ten days to as much as two weeks. Maybe that is bearish to prices, but let’s face it: it is hardly unusual for the Corn Belt to go through the first 15 to 17 days of September without a frost. Even for a place like Huron, South Dakota in the far northwestern Corn Belt, a 32 degree temperature is recorded on or before September 14 only about once every ten years on average. We had some sub- freezing lows in the far western and northwestern Corn Belt on September 15 in 2007 (Spencer…28 degrees) and in 1993 (Lincoln…31 degrees), with a September 16 freeze in 1984 (Waterloo…31 degrees); otherwise, every first frost/freeze that the major growing areas of the Corn Belt has had since 1976 has occurred on September 19 or later.

A freeze this year that would occur on that date or even a little later would still do a lot of damage to especially the corn crop, so the trade will remain vigilant about frost chances. The biggest concern that I have with regards to the weather coming up would be in regards to wet weather for the Delta region. A shortage in supply of old crop soybeans has the soybean market demanding that the early-maturing Delta crop gets harvested as quickly as possible this year, but light rain will start to move into that area tomorrow and that area could have a fairly consistent threat of rainfall through about a week from now. I do not think that we are looking for particularly big amounts of rain, but the persistent nature of that rain will keep harvesting progress fairly slow. We should be able to clear things out in the Delta after about September 10 or 11. The bulk of the Corn Belt will not see much in the way of near term rain; only far western and far southern areas will have chances. A cold front coming through the region for about next Wednesday/Thursday will give the Midwest its next chance for a widespread rainfall event.