Wednesday, September 23, 2009:
Trying to determine if/when the 2009 growing season will end for the Corn Belt has been a difficult task as of late (some would almost call it almost a comedy of errors). Last week on a couple different occasions I stated that the Midwest would have to “dodge a couple bullets” if it wanted to make it to October 1 with the growing season intact, and of course we had the corn and soybean markets sharply higher on September 15 when some models suggested very cold weather for this Friday (i.e. just two days away…a morning that in the end will be quite mild in all of the Nation’s midsection). It looked like those “bullets” were removed from the “holster” by the end of last week through very early this week, but since yesterday morning we have seen the weather models trend cooler again, suggesting that there are again no assurances that “everyone” will make it to October 1 with temperatures above the 32 degree mark. A strong cold front coming through late this Sunday through Monday will be ushering in that cold (with very windy conditions allowing everyone to quickly “feel” when that cold front makes its passage). The coldest mornings will probably be next Tuesday and Wednesday, with Tuesday probably being the colder of the two. Right now I think that most places in the Midwest and Northern Plains will have lows no worse than the 30s during that time frame, and thus feel that the vast majority of the area will indeed see the growing season continue through that cold. As always though, you will see a few of the normally “cold” locations dip to 32 or even as low as the upper 20s. We should temperatures really warm up again for at least a couple days after that cold air passes. Near term it is rain, not cold, that is the main weather feature. Delta growing areas are going to stay damp/wet through the end of the work-week, and we will start to see rain increase in coverage and intensity in the Midwest for tomorrow and Friday. Look for the Corn Belt and most of the Delta to dry out on Saturday though, and that should start several days of dry weather. For the Delta, that dryness should last through October 1 (or maybe even a day longer), though the Midwest should start to see rain again for October 1-2 (starting in the west).
