Thursday, September 24, 2009
This is the second week in row in which we have seen the corn and soybean markets gain some upside traction due to fears of a frost for the Midwest, but for the second week in a row it looks like anyone who bought the markets hoping for major damage is going to be disappointed with the amount that occurs. Consider this: our big rally last week was due to fears of a freeze on September 25, which is tomorrow. As it turns out, actual lows tomorrow morning in the Midwest and Northern Plains will largely in the 50s and even 60s! The time frame that the market is concerned about right now is for next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, and while I highly doubt that the temperature forecast for this event will be as big of a “bust” as the one for tomorrow, it still looks to be a situation where freeze-related losses should be minor. It still looks to be later Sunday and into Monday when a strong cold front ushers in the cold air. Behind that front, look for exceptionally windy conditions for Sunday night through a good part of Monday. High pressure building it will cool things off for the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt for Tuesday morning, with the central and eastern Corn Belt seeing Wednesday be the coldest morning. I still feel that most places in the Midwest and Northern Plains will have lows no worse than the 30s during that time frame, and thus fell that the vast majority of the area will see the growing season continue beyond the last two days of this month. As always though, you will see a few normally “cold” locations dip to 32 degrees or a bit lower. Warming will occur quickly after the cold, with the western Corn Belt already very mild for next Wednesday and the entire Corn Belt warm on Thursday. We still have two to three more days of rain to work through. Extensive rain was falling early today over eastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and parts of the Ohio River Valley. The rain in Missouri will move north or even a bit northwest to really bring central and eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota some big rains for tonight and tomorrow. We are really going to start drying things out on Saturday though, and Sunday through Wednesday looks dry for the Corn Belt and Delta. Rain will be working into the Corn Belt for October 1-2, though we might be able to stretch the dryness in the Delta through that period before rain falls there again on October 3. Another weather system looks possible for about October 4.
