Friday, October 9, 2009
Results of the October USDA crop report will certainly dominant “trade talk” today in the corn and soybean markets, but once those numbers are discounted the markets will still have to consider weather concerns. Flash flood warnings were posted early today for much of southwestern Missouri, northwestern Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, and a few counties in southern Indiana. Flood warnings were found over the rest of about the southern half of Missouri, southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, and southern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Rain, of which some has been very heavy, has been a common sight the past 24 hours in a large area from southwestern Texas through the southeastern Plains and the southern Corn Belt. Central through southwestern Missouri has been hit the hardest, with radar estimating 2.5 to 4.0 inches of rain there since just yesterday morning. Since the rain got started Wednesday night, I can confirm over fives inches of rain at Columbia. The same area that has had all the rain since yesterday morning is largely the same area that was still seeing rain early on this Friday, with just a slow advancement in the rain shield to the east and southeast. Your biggest rains over the next 24 hours will be over eastern Texas northeastward through the Delta, with another one to three inches likely in that area. Unfortunately there is just no shortage of moisture in the forecast going into next week either. Highlighting precipitation for the weekend will be the likelihood of some snow in the northwestern Corn Belt, with a little falling there tonight and then Sunday night into early Monday still being a time period to expect snow in especially the South Dakota/Nebraska border area through central and southern Minnesota. One has to be looking at further solid chances for rainfall for the middle and latter parts of next week; biggest amounts for October 15-16, but some could certainly fall before that as well. Temperatures are easily below the freezing mark this morning for the Northern Plains and far northwestern Corn Belt. Areas at or below freezing tomorrow morning will extend further east and south to cover most of Nebraska, much of Iowa, much of Wisconsin, and far northwestern Illinois. Lows below freezing on Sunday morning likely will extend into northern Kansas, far northern Missouri, northern Illinois, far northwestern Indiana, and southern Michigan. There were hopes for a dramatic warm-up for late next week and beyond, but instead weather models are suggesting a fresh cold air mass after our weather system of October 15-16.
