Weather and Market Commentary- October 14, 2009
October 14, 2009 by sabrina829
Wednesday, October 14, 2009:
Crop progress data released yesterday afternoon confirmed my suspicion of about two weeks ago that we would be facing our slowest start to the corn and soybean harvest in at least 30 years by this time. At 23 percent complete as of this past Sunday, the national soybean harvest matches 1986 as the slowest recorded for that date since 1979. Under 20 percent of the soybean crop has been cut in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota and Wisconsin; the five-year averages for those states run from 36 percent (Missouri) to 68 percent (North Dakota). Nebraska farmers are having the least amount of trouble in getting the soybean crop harvested, but at 45 percent done this week, even that is 16 percentage points slower than the five-year average. At 13 percent done as of this past Sunday, the national corn harvest is confirmed to be the slowest recorded for that date going back to at least 1979; the previous low-water mark was 16 percent done as of October 11 in 1992. Except for Nebraska, Missouri, and Indiana, all major corn producing states had less than ten percent of the crop out of the field as of this past Sunday; five-year averages range from 11 percent (North Dakota) all the way up to 56 percent (Illinois). Effects of all of the wet weather recently in the Delta showed itself this week in the form of sharp rating declines for the soybean crops in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Many analysts were surprised at the lack of a drop in national corn ratings, given the freeze of this past weekend that caught a significant amount of that crop not fully mature. We may still have to consider something close to a record-slow harvest pace for next Monday’s numbers as well. For October 18, the slowest soybean harvest over the past 30 years was in 1985 (about 33% on that date), while the slowest corn harvest was in 1992 (22% done). What farmers need right now is a good week of sunny and dry weather, and while we will see a little of that coming up…we are not going to see anywhere close to a week of it. Heaviest of the rains are now behind us (after producing very big amounts in southern Arkansas the past 24 hours), but most places in the Midwest and Delta will see additional light rains over the next 48 hours. Not much precipitation will fall Friday, but drying conditions likely will not be good. Saturday is a dry day, and look for the Sunday/Monday time frame to be the best fall weather we have seen so far with sunshine, breezy conditions and warm temperatures. Significant rainfall still looks like though for the October 20-21 time frame.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
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Weather and Market Commentary- October 14, 2009
October 14, 2009 by sabrina829
Wednesday, October 14, 2009:
Crop progress data released yesterday afternoon confirmed my suspicion of about two weeks ago that we would be facing our slowest start to the corn and soybean harvest in at least 30 years by this time. At 23 percent complete as of this past Sunday, the national soybean harvest matches 1986 as the slowest recorded for that date since 1979. Under 20 percent of the soybean crop has been cut in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota and Wisconsin; the five-year averages for those states run from 36 percent (Missouri) to 68 percent (North Dakota). Nebraska farmers are having the least amount of trouble in getting the soybean crop harvested, but at 45 percent done this week, even that is 16 percentage points slower than the five-year average. At 13 percent done as of this past Sunday, the national corn harvest is confirmed to be the slowest recorded for that date going back to at least 1979; the previous low-water mark was 16 percent done as of October 11 in 1992. Except for Nebraska, Missouri, and Indiana, all major corn producing states had less than ten percent of the crop out of the field as of this past Sunday; five-year averages range from 11 percent (North Dakota) all the way up to 56 percent (Illinois). Effects of all of the wet weather recently in the Delta showed itself this week in the form of sharp rating declines for the soybean crops in Arkansas and Mississippi.
Many analysts were surprised at the lack of a drop in national corn ratings, given the freeze of this past weekend that caught a significant amount of that crop not fully mature. We may still have to consider something close to a record-slow harvest pace for next Monday’s numbers as well. For October 18, the slowest soybean harvest over the past 30 years was in 1985 (about 33% on that date), while the slowest corn harvest was in 1992 (22% done). What farmers need right now is a good week of sunny and dry weather, and while we will see a little of that coming up…we are not going to see anywhere close to a week of it. Heaviest of the rains are now behind us (after producing very big amounts in southern Arkansas the past 24 hours), but most places in the Midwest and Delta will see additional light rains over the next 48 hours. Not much precipitation will fall Friday, but drying conditions likely will not be good. Saturday is a dry day, and look for the Sunday/Monday time frame to be the best fall weather we have seen so far with sunshine, breezy conditions and warm temperatures. Significant rainfall still looks like though for the October 20-21 time frame.
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
To Return to Fastline.com- Click Here
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