Weather and Market Commentary- October 27, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary- October 27, 2009

October 27, 2009 by sabrina829

Tuesday, October 27, 2009:

Harvest progress numbers released on Monday showed that the national soybean harvest was no longer the slowest in the last 30 years…but it was close! At 44 percent done as of October 25, that figure barely surpassed the 43 percent completion figure from 1985 for that same date (and matched the 44 percent completion figure seen on that same date in 1984). The 2009 corn harvest is easily the slowest we have seen in at least the last 30 years; the 20 percent completion figure as of this past Sunday easily surpassed the 33 percent completion mark for October 25, 1992. I think that it is possible that we will again see both the national corn and the national soybean harvest be reported as the slowest ever for next Monday’s report. Fields across the Corn Belt and Delta were wet enough early this week to keep harvesting operations slow at best, and what activity was seen was largely confined to corn as the soybean crop was too wet to harvest. Widespread rain for the end of the work-week (with heavy amounts yet again forecast for the Delta and southeastern Corn Belt) will bring even that activity to a halt once again. To again become the slowest national soybean harvest in at least the last 30 years, harvest progress next Monday afternoon would have to be under 50 percent (the pace seen on November 1, 1984) and I think that such a projection is realistic. It is a given that the national corn harvest will be the slowest ever for next Monday’s report; national progress below the 44 percent completion mark of 1992 would do it, and we will not even approach that number next Monday. The bottom line is that combines will be running in November this year like we have never seen in at least the last 30 years. At least there are good indications that weather to start off November will be better than what we had in October. Dry weather returns to all of the Corn Belt and Delta early Saturday, and big rain systems are not in the forecast for several days after that. We will have to be aware of weaker systems though affecting especially northern and northeastern parts of the Corn Belt from time to time; the first of these looks to be arriving for about November 2.