Weather and Market Commentary- October 29, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary- October 29, 2009

October 29, 2009 by sabrina829

Thursday, October 29, 2009:

There are not many changes to talk about with regards to the weather forecast today, which means way too much rain (and for some areas, snow) in the near term but easily the best harvest weather of the fall season for next week. The southern Delta and areas west of Interstate 35 were the places where the radar was especially active with showers and thunderstorms early on this Thursday. By far the biggest rains today will be in western parts of the Delta, where rains over the next 24 hours will be on the order of one to three inches for especially areas west of the Mississippi River. Precipitation in the Plains and Corn Belt during that period will be on the order of 0.25 to 1.00 inches. Precipitation will end tomorrow in the western Corn Belt but continue in much of the eastern Corn Belt and the heart of the Delta with another one to three inches falling in those areas. Probably the biggest change in the forecast today is a more limited threat of rainfall for Saturday; what rain falls should be very early in the day and be confined to just far eastern parts of the Corn Belt and Delta. Certainly the area still looking to have the biggest problem with this near-term storm system is the Delta, where rains over the next 48 hours will be two to four inches and locally even heavier. One to three inches of rain will be common for a good part of the southeastern Corn Belt. Flash flood watches are posted throughout the Mississippi River Valley as north as central Illinois.

The same area to get all of the heavy rain could see some severe weather as well. Winter storm warnings, winter weather advisories, and winter storm watches are still posted from Colorado northward through central North Dakota. The snowfall situation does not look as ominous for that area as it did yesterday, though there will be significant accumulations for Colorado, the western third of Nebraska, and central South Dakota. As stated above, the western Corn Belt will dry out tomorrow, the eastern Corn Belt and Delta will dry out on Saturday…and then, for a nice change, it is tough to say when a major precipitation event will again impact those areas. I think that there will be weather systems for about Monday and Wednesday of next week, but both look very weak (rainfall amounts likely a quarter inch or less) and look to be mainly confined to the northeastern Corn Belt. November 8 is the earliest that I can detect any sign of more widespread weather system, so that gives you an indication of just how big of a “harvest window” we are looking at. Warming temperatures for especially Tuesday and beyond will also be a big help in drying both crops and soils in the region.