Weather and Market Commentary- October 30, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary- October 30, 2009

October 30, 2009 by sabrina829

Friday, October 30, 2009:

Flash flood warnings were the rule, certainly not the exception, early on this Friday from extreme southeastern Iowa southward through eastern Missouri, far western Illinois, eastern Arkansas, and northwestern Louisiana as that area has seen heavy rainfall the past 24 hours (and, more importantly, that rain fell on already saturated ground). It appears though far northeastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas (along a line from about Lufkin through Shreveport to west of Eldorado) has been hit the hardest; I can confirm over six inches of rain at Shreveport (much of that falling in just a six hour period last evening). Extensive rain was still falling early today in an area from northern Michigan all the way southward to the Gulf Coast near the Texas/Louisiana border. Extensive rain was also still falling in eastern South Dakota, with snow still falling in western Nebraska and surrounding areas (where winter storm warnings and even some blizzard warnings were posted through early today). Considerable rain will continue to fall today and tonight over the eastern Corn Belt through the Delta with additional 0.50-2.00 inch amounts expected.

Lighter precipitation amounts are expected for the rains currently falling over the far northwestern Corn Belt. Tomorrow should dawn with just some lingering rains in the far eastern Corn Belt, and that day starts the long-awaited, much-needed period of drier weather for the Nation’s midsection. Northeastern parts of the Corn Belt will have to dodge very light rains systems every once in a while; the first arrives for Sunday night and Monday, with additional systems possible for about November 4 and maybe again for about November 6. All of these look very light and even in the northeastern Corn Belt not everyone will get those rains. For the rest of the Corn Belt, Delta, and Plains, we are looking at the potential for about a week of dry weather. National soybean harvest progress on Monday will be under 50 percent done (the slowest in the past 30 years), but if the weather next week holds we could see that number jump to around 70 percent complete for the week ending November 8 (which would actually still make that pace among the slowest ever). Corn harvesting will go forth more rapidly as well, but it is likely that we will never see a big jump (i.e. 20 percentage points or more) in any given week this fall, even under the best of weather, given how wet the crop is in the fields this year.