Weather and Market Commentary- November 3, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary- November 3, 2009

November 3, 2009 by sabrina829

Tuesday, November 3, 2009:

Like last week, the national soybean harvest progress number released this past Monday was not the lowest figure of the last thirty years, but it was very close. At 51 percent done as of November 1, the soybean harvest pace this year is faster than only the 50 percent completion mark of November 1, 1984. For the corn harvest, the pace this year is easily the slowest of the past 30 years. Just 25 percent of the Nation’s corn had been cut as of this past Sunday; prior to this year, the lowest amount cut on that date over the past 30 years was 44 percent in 1992. There is little doubt that the worst of the delays are in Illinois. That state saw rain on six of seven days from October 26 to November 1, so it easy to see why just two percent of the soybeans and five percent of the corn was harvested there last week. Illinois was barely a third done with the soybean harvest as of November 1, a time when normally most farmers there are wrapping up that harvest. It is the second slowest soybean harvest on record for Illinois (the lowest was 21 percent…set way back in 1941!).

The corn harvest in Illinois had not even reached the 20 percent completion mark as of this past Sunday, versus the five-year average that is approaching 90 percent done. It is the third slowest Illinois corn harvest on record (since 1940) and the slowest since 1967. We are going to see all of these numbers be a good deal higher next Monday, as clearly Mother Nature is giving us our best week of harvest weather so far this fall (not exactly a bold statement, given how bad this fall’s weather has been; many states in the Nation’s midsection recorded by far their wettest October on record, with temperatures among the coldest ever recorded in that month). I think that the national soybean harvest progress number will be in the 70-75 percent completion range for next Monday’s report (which would still make this year among the slowest ever). With farmers concentrating on the soybean harvest and with this year’s corn crop so wet, corn harvest progress for next Monday’s report will be slower but I think that figure can be in the 35-40 percent range. Harvesting progress will slow again next week though, with a significant storm system likely impacting much of the Nation’s midsection for November 9-10.