The Fastline Blog

Friday, November 6, 2009:

I think that there are a lot of details to be worked out in regards to how the weather plays out exactly next week (mainly as it pertains to tropical weather coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and how it influences the weather in the Lower 48, particularly for the Delta and Southeast), but I have to admit that it is very difficult to come up with any scenario in which the Plains and at least the central and western Corn Belt (and quite possibly all of the Corn Belt) gets real wet again next week. The best weather of the fall season still looks to continue through the weekend, with no rain, breezy conditions, and some exceptionally warm temperatures. There are going to be a lot of high temperatures this weekend that top out on either side of the 70 degree mark. Temperatures should easily average above normal through about Thursday of next week as well, meaning that the next seven days will feature temperatures that average some ten to fifteen degrees above normal for especially the western Corn Belt as well as the central and northern Plains. There is still a rainfall threat for early next week, but it still looks to be a weak system, a quick moving system, and a system starved for moisture (as everything is trapped in the Gulf of Mexico with weather systems there).

Rains in the western Corn Belt for Monday and in the eastern Corn Belt for Tuesday should be largely a quarter inch or less, and there will be plenty of locations that get nothing at all. That should be followed by about three days of dry weather before rain chances again arrive for next weekend. How that weather system plays out is highly uncertain, but I am not getting any indications that the storm at that time would be especially strong (particularly for the western Corn Belt and Plains). There are not indications of big storms beyond next weekend either. Just beyond mid-month, the warmest temperatures (with respect to normal) likely will be in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Plains; something that make me less worried about the potential for any big snows for that area any time soon. For the Midwest, this is about as good as it can get as far as November weather is concerned. Given the type of weather that area had in October…all that I can say is, “It’s about time!”

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