Weather and Market Commentary: November 11, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 11, 2009

November 11, 2009 by sabrina829

Wednesday, November 11, 2009:

Some parts of the Corn Belt, Plains and Delta have gone without rainfall since October 31, and some of those same areas will remain free through the end of this weekend to give them as many as 16 straight days of completely dry weather to thus allow for massive amounts of the 2009 corn, soybean, and cotton crops to get harvested and allow for winter wheat to get planted. As with everything else in life though, “all good things must come to an end,” and that is what we will see for the early and middle parts of next week. Already on Friday we will see some rain move into the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt, but it is a second system slated to get started in the Plains on Sunday and in the center of the Corn Belt by no later than Monday morning that will be the main focus of precipitation. It is a weather system featuring a closed low pressure system aloft, which is the type of weather system that the models typically handle very poorly; thus there are still a lot of details in the forecast to be worked out. At this point, it looks like especially Kansas and Missouri will be seeing the bulk of the precipitation through early Monday, with Illinois and Iowa (especially southern and eastern parts of that state) seeing most of the rain through early Tuesday.

Precipitation will likely linger in Iowa/Illinois for Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the rain reaching Indiana/Ohio/Michigan during that period as well. That will mark the end of most of the precipitation, though the first true “dry” day for the Corn Belt will likely not be until about Thursday. Most of the rain for the Delta is for late Monday through early Tuesday. For the duration of the storm, look for the heaviest of the rain to be centered over eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, Missouri, southern/eastern Iowa, and much of Illinois where amounts will likely be over an inch and some places may get over two inches. Precipitation from the storm should be very limited for Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and far northwestern Iowa. Odds are good that once the system passes, several days of dry weather will again be seen. It is still a weather pattern that is void of abnormally cold temperatures, and that is especially going to be the case for the northwestern Corn Belt and the northern Plains right through the next two weeks.