Weather and Market Commentary: November 12, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 12, 2009

November 12, 2009 by sabrina829

Thursday, November 12, 2009:

South American weather is normally at the forefront of grain traders’ minds by the middle of November, though that is not the case this year given that the U.S. harvest is so late. Still, I thought I would take a break from U.S. weather this morning to brief you on what has been going on in the Southern Hemisphere. Lack of rainfall has certainly not been a problem for corn and soybean growing areas of Brazil and Paraguay. The “rainy season” got an early start this fall in Brazil’s key northern soybean growing regions, which allowed for planting there to get started right on time and allowed farmers to plant the soybean crop very rapidly (well ahead of the pace of last year at last check). Because of this, an unusually high amount of soybeans in the north could be ready for harvest as early as January. In the south, too much rain has been a problem at times for Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The biggest impact of that rain has probably been on the small winter wheat crop grown in that area; planting delay worries for the corn and soybean crops have not been mentioned. With the exception of Bahia in the far north, widespread rain will fall throughout the main Brazilian corn and soybean belt through the end of the coming weekend.

Southern Brazilian growing areas will then dry out some for the early and middle parts of next week to allow for a quick resumption of planting efforts. Argentina continues to report some concerns about dry soils, a by-product of the historic drought that was recorded there for the 2008/09 growing season. Things would be much worse were it not for some extremely good rains that fell there in September. October was a drier month though, and not much rain has fallen this month. The worst conditions are as one goes further west and south in their growing areas. It does not appear to be an especially critical situation right now; just yesterday the Buenos Aires grain exchange reported good planting progress with “ideal” conditions in northern Buenos Aires and central/southern Santa Fe while dryness in Cordoba has delayed planting there. There is some hope for better rains in Argentina over about the next ten days. Scattered showers will be seen there for tomorrow, and it looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms may dot their landscape through early next week. Coverage and amounts may not be all that good in that period, but a few places could get some beneficial moisture. It is in the November 19-22 time frame when a more general, soaking rain may fall across their main growing regions.