Weather and Market Commentary: November 17, 2009

Feeds:: Posts; Comments

Weather and Market Commentary: November 17, 2009

November 17, 2009 by sabrina829

Tuesday, November 17, 2009:

At various times during this growing season I have compared conditions this year to those that we saw in 1992, given that we had a cool summer that year, we had late maturing crops, and we had a corn crop that was hit by a freeze in some areas before it was fully mature. Even here during the harvest, one can still see interesting parallels between the two years. The national corn harvest as of this past Sunday was 54 percent complete, the slowest in over 30 years and a pace just a bit slower than (you guessed it) 1992 (when 59 percent was done). More than 40 percent of the crop remained to be harvested as of November 15 in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin; in 1992 on that same date, similar circumstances were reported in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. At just eight percent done, it is the North Dakota corn harvest that is exceptionally slow this year; in 1992, it was Michigan where just 15 percent of the corn crop was cut by November 15.

Like this year, a corn crop very high in moisture content was a major hurdle for farmers to deal with in 1992, and there were reports of mold in that year’s corn as well. The biggest difference between the two years is when the heaviest of the precipitation in the fall occurred; this year was exceptionally wet in October, while in 1992 it was November when the big precipitation fell. All of the corn in 1992 was not harvested before the first big snows of the year arrived, and some of that year’s corn had to be harvested in the spring. As of December 6, 1992, still 17 percent of the Nation’s corn remained in the field (more than 15 percent in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; more than 60 percent in Michigan!). I think that it realistic to expect that all of this year’s corn will not be harvested before our first big snowstorm (though such a storm is not yet in the forecast), and with so much still left to do and with conditions in some areas very wet (particularly Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and central Illinois after big early-week rains) I think it is likely that combines will be working in parts of the Corn Belt next spring.