Weather and Market Commentary: November 19, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 19, 2009

November 19, 2009 by sabrina829

Thursday, November 19, 2009:

At times in recent weeks we have seen the soybean market express concern about dryness in Argentine growing areas, and some soybean production forecasts for that country this week have dropped below 50 MMT because of that dryness. One wonders if this concern was not a bit hasty, as we have seen a fair amount of improvement in soil moisture conditions as of late, and more improvement will be seen through early next week. Wetter weather started to develop in Argentina late last week. Rain fell throughout the state of Cordoba (their largest corn and soybean producing state and seemingly the area that was of most concern) from last Friday through last weekend; one location gauged over two inches, and another gauged over three inches. That same time frame produced rain all across Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and northern Buenos Aires; four stations in that area picked up more than an inch. La Pampa grows very few soybeans and not much corn either, but was an area where dryness was said to be severe; the one station that reports weather observations in that state got an inch of rain for the period ending Tuesday morning. The period ending yesterday morning brought additional light rains to Cordoba, with heavier totals (over an inch in many locations) to Santa Fe and Entre Rios.

Finally, we have seen still more rains since yesterday morning; I can confirm at least two inches of rain for a key location along the Cordoba/Santa Fe border through midnight, with lots of amounts around or above an inch in Buenos Aires. Santa Fe and Entre Rios will likely come in with good totals when 24-hour amounts are reported in a few hours. There may not be much rain in Argentina from later today through early Monday, but another solid rainfall threat looms for late Monday through Tuesday. Double-crop soybeans in Argentina can be planted through early January, so suffice it to say that we are not yet close to the end of their planting season. Growing areas of Brazil and Paraguay remain well-watered. If anything, the problem is with conditions that are too wet in the south, after 3.50-8.00 inch rains last weekend in Rio Grande do Sul. That state will have a daily threat of rain for today through the end of the weekend, and another for about next Wednesday before the bigger rains move further north.