Monday, November 23, 2009:
It was not a “perfect” harvest weekend in the Corn Belt (let’s face it: they rarely are in the second half of November), but most places saw very little precipitation and we saw a good deal of sun and warm temperatures in a lot of areas so we certainly saw some harvest progress being made. It is going to be a slower go of it from now through Thanksgiving though as precipitation will be on the increase. Rains were widely scattered and light early on this Monday in the western half of the Corn Belt, and likely will stay that way (and remain in that area) through late this afternoon. By tomorrow morning though we will be seeing substantial rains start to fall in a good part of the Missouri River Valley, and it will be that system that will bring the biggest rains this week. Target eastern Nebraska, far southeastern South Dakota, southern/eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, northern Illinois, and most of Iowa with the biggest totals that will likely be on the order of 0.50-1.00 inches and localized totals of over an inch. The rest of the Corn Belt will escape with mostly 0.10-0.40″ amounts. Little or nothing will fall from the system for the Southern Plains and the Delta. It is a slow moving system (yet another closed, upper level-low pressure system that are so common in this time of year) so we are not looking at a completely dry day everywhere in the Corn Belt again until Friday (though Thanksgiving Day should be dry for especially areas west of Interstate 35).
On Wednesday we could see enough cold air drawn into the system to produce some light snow accumulations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. As noted above, Friday looks to be a dry day and I look for that dry weather to last into the weekend. Conditions could be stormy for early next week, but the bulk of that activity will be in the far southern United States with the Corn Belt quite possibly getting by with very little. We are looking at a warm start to the work-week, but especially southeastern parts of the Corn Belt (and points southward) will drop below normal on temperatures for Wednesday to Friday. Next weekend is warmer again, but the maps are consistent with those of last Friday in suggesting a colder start to December (with the worst of the cold, with respect to normal, still forecast to target the Delta, Southeast, and Ohio Valley). For this afternoon’s crop progress report, I would look for the national soybean harvest to reach 94 percent complete, with the corn harvest at 66 percent done (not far from the 69 percent level for the same date in 1992).
Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2009 – All Rights Reserved
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