Tuesday, January 5th, 2010
Strength in the corn and soybean markets as of late continues to take place without any help from concerning weather in South American growing areas. The month of December was a very wet month in Argentina (certainly a far cry from a year ago, when record-setting drought was seen), with the heart of their growing area in northern Buenos Aires, southeastern Cordoba, and central/southern Santa Fe gauging more than twice the rainfall that is normally recorded in that month. One had to go to far northern Cordoba and far southern Buenos Aires to find any locations that did not see at least normal rainfall in December. Temperatures for December averaged very close to normal levels as well. In Brazil, December was a bit on the dry side in Bahia (between 75 and 100 percent of normal rainfall there) and in parts of Parana (also seeing 75-100 percent of normal rainfall); otherwise, rainfall was at least normal and for especially eastern Mato Grosso, western Goias, much of Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Minas Gerais, and much of Rio Grande do Sul it was above normal. Temperatures for December in Brazilian growing areas ran slightly on the warm side of normal. This weather capped off what was a very good planting season for South American farmers, with the only trouble noted was conditions that were too wet at times in Rio Grande do Sul that slowed planting operations. Right now is a particularly key time for the South American corn crop, with much of the crop in the silking stage right now and before long we will reach the fill stage. Based on December weather, the weather seen so far this month, and the weather that we see coming up, it looks like Brazilian and Argentine corn yields should be quite big this year. The recent holiday weekend featured extensive rain throughout the bulk of the Argentine growing region; five different locations recorded one to four inch rains during the first four days of the year. All of the Brazilian growing area was forecast to see extensive rain at one time or another through January 10. Argentina should have another threat of rain for around January 11-12. Temperatures over the next week or longer do not look to pose a problem either. There is still a lot of weather to get through before the corn and especially soybean crops are in the bin, but at this point there is no reason not to be optimistic about South American production prospects.
