Weather and Market Commentary: February 1, 2010

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Weather and Market Commentary: February 1, 2010

February 1, 2010 by sabrina829

Monday, February 1, 2010:

Stress for Argentine corn and soybean crops came to an end over the weekend as rains started to fall once again, and now that they have started it is going to be a while before they end. Little or no rain fell in the heart of the Argentine corn and soybean growing region from about January 19 through January 29, and temperatures were consistently in the low 90s for a lot of that period before readings reached the middle and upper 90s late last week (even some 100 degree readings scored in western Cordoba). Temperatures turned cooler for the weekend though, thanks in large part to rain starting to fall. Already I can find two key locations that have recorded more than two inches, with another spot gauging an inch. Satellite photos show that rain is currently falling in far northern parts of the Argentine growing area.

There is going to be a daily threat of rain in all or parts of the Argentine growing area through the end of next weekend. Rainfall totals in that period will be common on the order of one to two inches (and locally heavier) for the heart of their growing area, but in the far north (across Entre Rios, northern Santa Fe, and far northeastern Cordoba) we will likely see even heavier totals that induce some flooding there. Needless to say, all areas will eventually get the type of rains needed to maintain excellent prospects for Argentine corn and soybean crops. In Brazil, a lot of their growing areas will not see all that much rain over the next five to seven days. With harvesting starting to expand in their northern growing areas, that means very little in the way of delays with that harvest here in the first part of February. Southern parts of Brazil were so incredibly wet for the first two to three weeks of January (over 15 inches of rain at a couple spots in Rio Grande do Sul) that recent drier weather there has been a benefit. There will be some widely scattered rains in that state at times this week, but probably net drying overall as temperatures will be in the 90s. Welcome rains should fall there for early next week. The corn and soybean markets are considering some very big South American production forecasts right now, and the weather does not suggest that those numbers will be coming down any time soon.