The Fastline Blog

Tuesday June 22, 2010:

We first saw it in 1993, saw it again in 2008, and have now seen it again this year: national corn and soybean ratings going down in June due to too much rain in the Corn Belt. Some of the rating drops were rather severe; corn ratings in South Dakota were down seven percentage points this week in the good/excellent category, while we saw a six percentage point drop in soybean ratings in the good/excellent category for both Iowa and Illinois. We saw significant soybean rating deterioration further south in the Nation as well, though of course that was due to the development of hot and dry weather in that area in recent weeks; Louisiana soybean ratings were down a staggering 16 percentage points in the good/excellent category. Versus historical standards though, these are still some very highly-rated crops on a national basis. At 75 percent good/excellent, this week’s rating for the corn crop is the highest for around this time of year since 1999, and over the past 21 years only the crops in 1994 and 1991 were rated higher. The national soybean rating of 69 percent good to excellent would be the highest rating since a 70 percent good/excellent rating given to the 2003 crop, and is rated very close to other high-rated years such as 1991, 1994, and 1999. One has to think that there is a chance for no better than steady, if not still lower, ratings for next Monday’s report given more rain in the Corn Belt and more heat/dryness in the Delta. We’ve got another two days of substantial rain (some heavy with severe weather) in the Corn Belt and another threat for late in the weekend. Meanwhile, a big soaking rain is not forecast for the Delta this week (though at least that area will have some chances for the end of the work-week as remnants of the front that has been producing so much rain in the Midwest works into that area). Getting a real big soaker into the Delta region still looks like it might take the remnants of a land-falling tropical weather system working into that area. Many weather models still want to “spin-up” our first named storm of the season for later this week and move it into the Gulf of Mexico; where its eventual landfall point would be remains highly uncertain.

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