Monday, July 18, 2011:
Heat became a big story in Midwest weather over the weekend, and if anything it will become an even bigger story for this work-week period. On every day through Friday I think that the bulk of the Midwest is at least 90 degrees for highs, but a lot of areas in the west are over 95 degrees early this week and especially the south and the east are 95 and higher for Wednesday through Friday. We are going to be seeing 100s this week, and they will be mainly the southwest early in the week and across the south late (extremes may go to as warm as about 105 for places like St. Louis and Topeka), but a few places a little further may get to around 100 as well. The best news in the forecast today is that significant cooling is not far away. Most of the 90+ degree warm by Saturday should be in about the southern half of the Midwest, and by Monday most of the region is below 90 for highs and temperatures are forecast to stay mild into the middle of next week. With that cool down will come (as you might expect) some rainfall chances, looking to be mainly centered around next weekend. In that period, we will probably see a pretty typical summer rainfall set-up when a cool down occurs: one where strong/severe storms produce locally big rains, but poor timing of the cool front’s passage leaves other areas short-changed on rainfall amounts. We are simply too far away from the event at this point to say who will get the good rains and who will not. Still no relief in sight for the historic drought areas of the southern Plains. I am not real optimistic on rainfall chances in the western Delta coming up, but the eastern Delta and especially the Southeast look to be in a favorable rainfall pattern for the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames.
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