Friday, September 9, 2011:
Three-day rainfall estimates are starting to really stack up for the far eastern Corn Belt, with radar estimating that northwestern Ohio, southeastern Michigan, and far northeastern Indiana has picked up over an inch and locally over two inches. If the calendar read “August 9″ that would really mean something, but here on September 9 it is very questionable as to how much benefit those rains can bring so late in the growing season. There will still be some lingering rains for today through Sunday in the eastern Corn Belt but the bulk of the rain is now behind us. The big story in the Midwest forecast today is colder temperatures for the middle and latter parts of next week that may bring a frost and a freeze to a significant part of the region. I noted yesterday that the models were suggesting some very cold air in Canada, and while the weather models yesterday did not bring that cold air into the Midwest I noted that it would not take much of a change in the models for that to happen. Well, such a change occurred overnight and there is enough model agreement to suggest that this new, colder solution is the correct one. Monday and Tuesday will be warm in the Midwest but it will be much cooler after that. Some 30-35 degree lows will be seen in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota on Wednesday morning, and east of there for Thursday and Friday mornings to impact Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and far northern parts of Illinois and Indiana. Thursday morning will probably be the coldest, and on that morning I see the potential for some lows in the upper 20s for northern Iowa, western Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Such a freeze would be two or more weeks earlier than normal for much of that area, but is certainly not unprecedented in nature. In fact, it was just four years ago in 2007 when we saw sub-32 degree lows for northern Iowa northward on September 15 (28 degrees at Mason City for example). No one remembers that cold wave though, since the crops were so far along in maturing in 2007. They are not nearly as far along this year (none of the Minnesota soybean crop was dropping leaves as of this past Monday, for example), and thus I would expect some damage to occur if indeed my low temperature forecast is correct.
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