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Weather and Market Commentary: November 20, 2009

November 20, 2009 by sabrina829

Friday, November 20, 2009:

There are some low clouds and fog in parts of the Corn Belt here early on this Friday, but that should burn off pretty quickly and overall the weather for today and tomorrow looks pretty nice for the region. We will see conditions start to go downhill again for Sunday with clouds and drizzle possible in northwestern parts of the region. Monday to Wednesday of next week would best be described as “unsettled” for the Midwest. Will there be constant rain during that period? Not likely. Will there be big precipitation totals (i.e. more than an inch) in that time frame? I highly doubt it. However, there will be a lot of cloud cover during that time frame and scattered areas of precipitation (mostly rain, though there might be a little wet snow in northern areas). I think that total precipitation in that period is at worst about three-quarters of an inch, but most spots will likely get a third of an inch or less.

Areas of the Corn Belt that may get the lightest totals would be in the south, which would be welcome after so much rain earlier this week. Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday should be largely dry days with a warming trend, then likely another weak/moderate system for the following weekend. A perfect forecast for harvesting? Far from it, but let’s face it: this is the second half of November, making it less and less likely that we will ever see “perfect” harvesting conditions (i.e. a week of completely dry and sunny weather with warm temperatures). I will stand by my long-standing arguments that there will be plenty of corn to be harvested this year in December, there will be corn in the field when the first big blizzard of the year arrives, and some corn will not be harvested until next spring. Temperatures for the rest of this month do not look bad: warm through Monday, dropping below normal for southeastern parts of the Midwest for the middle of next week, then warming again for late next week. There are good signs that the month of December will start off colder, with the worst of the cold (with respect to normal) in southern and southeastern parts of the Nation.

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Join Dairy Farmers and Beef Producers In A Food Fight

November 19, 2009 by sabrina829

With a virtually constant flow of misinformation in mainstream media of late, it’s easy to get frustrated when you’re working your land and cattle in environmentally sound and caring ways. Of particular concern is the fact that so many of the attacks on our industry are based on emotional pleas rather than facts or science.

As beef producers, dairy farmers and importers, you certainly can’t personally pull together and disseminate the vast amount of beef research and nutrition information to consumers nationwide and still run your day-to-day operations, so that’s where your checkoff comes in! These days, however, those efforts alone are not always enough against the onslaught of Internet and other electronic platforms that allow the spread of misinformation far and wide in the blink of an eye. (Read Full Article Here)

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 19, 2009

November 19, 2009 by sabrina829

Thursday, November 19, 2009:

At times in recent weeks we have seen the soybean market express concern about dryness in Argentine growing areas, and some soybean production forecasts for that country this week have dropped below 50 MMT because of that dryness. One wonders if this concern was not a bit hasty, as we have seen a fair amount of improvement in soil moisture conditions as of late, and more improvement will be seen through early next week. Wetter weather started to develop in Argentina late last week. Rain fell throughout the state of Cordoba (their largest corn and soybean producing state and seemingly the area that was of most concern) from last Friday through last weekend; one location gauged over two inches, and another gauged over three inches. That same time frame produced rain all across Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and northern Buenos Aires; four stations in that area picked up more than an inch. La Pampa grows very few soybeans and not much corn either, but was an area where dryness was said to be severe; the one station that reports weather observations in that state got an inch of rain for the period ending Tuesday morning. The period ending yesterday morning brought additional light rains to Cordoba, with heavier totals (over an inch in many locations) to Santa Fe and Entre Rios.

Finally, we have seen still more rains since yesterday morning; I can confirm at least two inches of rain for a key location along the Cordoba/Santa Fe border through midnight, with lots of amounts around or above an inch in Buenos Aires. Santa Fe and Entre Rios will likely come in with good totals when 24-hour amounts are reported in a few hours. There may not be much rain in Argentina from later today through early Monday, but another solid rainfall threat looms for late Monday through Tuesday. Double-crop soybeans in Argentina can be planted through early January, so suffice it to say that we are not yet close to the end of their planting season. Growing areas of Brazil and Paraguay remain well-watered. If anything, the problem is with conditions that are too wet in the south, after 3.50-8.00 inch rains last weekend in Rio Grande do Sul. That state will have a daily threat of rain for today through the end of the weekend, and another for about next Wednesday before the bigger rains move further north.

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 18, 2009

November 18, 2009 by sabrina829

Wednesday, November 18, 2009:

Substantial amounts of additional rainfall have been recorded since yesterday morning across far southeastern Iowa eastward through northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana; radar is suggesting that amounts in that area have been on the order of 0.50-1.50″. Some additional rains will fall in that area over the next two days, but at least the worst is now behind us. It is a real wet mess right now for Missouri, southern Iowa, western Indiana, and all but far northern Illinois as those areas have seen tremendous amounts of rain since Sunday. Radar is suggesting plenty of one to three inch totals, and I can find reports of more than four inches from farmers in that area. The heaviest “official” total that I can find (for the duration of the storm, ending at midnight last night) is 3.62 inches at Decatur.

While all of that rain has occurred, not far away there are areas of the Corn Belt that have seen no rain and thus widespread harvesting has continued. The Dakotas, northern Iowa, Minnesota, northern Nebraska, extreme northern Illinois, most of Michigan, and a sizable part of Ohio has yet to see precipitation so far this week. Thus, even with the big rains in the heart of the Corn Belt we should see harvest progress numbers next Monday be a decent amount higher than the figures released on Monday (I would think the national corn harvest figure will surpass 65 percent complete, or potentially very close to the 69 percent completion figure seen in the slow 1992 harvest season that I mentioned in yesterday’s report). We will continue to see a lot of corn be harvested through the early weekend for especially areas west of Interstate 35, while areas to the east will have to deal with areas of light rain and drizzle for the next two days before dry weather is seen for Friday and Saturday. There will be rain chances for Sunday-Tuesday of next week, but it will not rain during “all” of that period and right now I would not expect heavy amounts. There is no threat of a major snowstorm in the forecast either. Temperatures look to average above or well above normal through early next week, and that will especially be the case for northern parts of the Corn Belt and the Northern Plains.

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 17, 2009

November 17, 2009 by sabrina829

Tuesday, November 17, 2009:

At various times during this growing season I have compared conditions this year to those that we saw in 1992, given that we had a cool summer that year, we had late maturing crops, and we had a corn crop that was hit by a freeze in some areas before it was fully mature. Even here during the harvest, one can still see interesting parallels between the two years. The national corn harvest as of this past Sunday was 54 percent complete, the slowest in over 30 years and a pace just a bit slower than (you guessed it) 1992 (when 59 percent was done). More than 40 percent of the crop remained to be harvested as of November 15 in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin; in 1992 on that same date, similar circumstances were reported in Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. At just eight percent done, it is the North Dakota corn harvest that is exceptionally slow this year; in 1992, it was Michigan where just 15 percent of the corn crop was cut by November 15.

Like this year, a corn crop very high in moisture content was a major hurdle for farmers to deal with in 1992, and there were reports of mold in that year’s corn as well. The biggest difference between the two years is when the heaviest of the precipitation in the fall occurred; this year was exceptionally wet in October, while in 1992 it was November when the big precipitation fell. All of the corn in 1992 was not harvested before the first big snows of the year arrived, and some of that year’s corn had to be harvested in the spring. As of December 6, 1992, still 17 percent of the Nation’s corn remained in the field (more than 15 percent in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; more than 60 percent in Michigan!). I think that it realistic to expect that all of this year’s corn will not be harvested before our first big snowstorm (though such a storm is not yet in the forecast), and with so much still left to do and with conditions in some areas very wet (particularly Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and central Illinois after big early-week rains) I think it is likely that combines will be working in parts of the Corn Belt next spring.

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 16, 2009

November 16, 2009 by sabrina829

Monday, November 16, 2009:

Two solid weeks of close-to-perfect harvesting weather came to an end late in this past weekend, with substantial amounts of rain (and some snow) for the central and southern Plains, the far western Delta, and in the Corn Belt for especially Missouri, central Illinois, northern Indiana, and far southern Michigan. Radar is suggesting a lot of 0.50 to 1.00 inch totals in the Corn Belt, and through midnight I can confirm those totals for places like Columbia, St. Louis, Springfield, and Peoria. This system is associated with a closed low-pressure system aloft; they are typically slow to move and this one is no different. The heaviest of the precipitation from the system will be over the next 48 hours, but it will not be until Friday before that system pulls far enough to the northeast to cease its impact on Midwest weather. Thus, we still have substantial amounts of precipitation to work through in the near term for a sizable part of the Nation’s midsection. Another 1.00 to 2.50 inches is forecast from now through early Thursday for southeastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri, and much of Illinois and Indiana. Because of those rains (and because river levels are already high), flood watches have been posted for far southeastern Iowa, eastern Missouri, and far western Illinois. There is not much cold air associated with this system, but what there is currently is found in the southwestern Corn Belt (right underneath the upper level low) and in that area there is snow falling early on this Monday.

Winter weather advisories and even winter storm warnings are posted for northeastern Kansas, far northwestern Missouri, far southwestern Iowa, and far southeastern Nebraska where one to as much as five inches of snow is expected for today. As you can surmise in the above wording, not “everyone” is going to see precipitation from this storm. Very little in the way of precipitation is forecast throughout this work-week for northwestern Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas; open harvest weather is thus going to continue for those areas. Not much in the way of precipitation may fall for Friday or Saturday, but we are looking at a pretty sizable storm for Sunday/Monday of next week. Temperatures still look abnormally warm over the next week, and that is especially the case for areas north of Interstate 80 where readings will average 5-10 degrees above normal. Colder weather is forecast for the second week of the two-week outlook, especially for the southeastern half of the Nation (the Dakotas in particular will still average a bit above normal on temperatures for that period). For this afternoon’s harvest progress report, I would look for the national soybean harvest to be 90 percent complete, with the corn harvest at 52 percent done.

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 20, 2009

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Join Dairy Farmers and Beef Producers In A Food Fight

Weather and Market Commentary: November 19, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 18, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 17, 2009

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Weather and Market Commentary: November 16, 2009

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