The influences from this week in Corn: Started the week with the weather; more rain, reports of 2 to 5 inches (locally maybe even higher) were seen across S. Iowa, N. Illinois, and N. Indiana. These rains turned out to more significant than just a lot of water. These rains also continue to wash out previously applied Nitrogen as well. For these reasons, as well as acreage concerns we feel this market has plenty of upside potential, the question is still When? On Tues. we heard ramblings that China may have bought 1 to 1.5 MMTs of corn from the US for October delivery; this contributed to the sell off we saw on Wed. Then Thursday, peripheral influences tried to pull corn under, but we managed to stabilize and then began a recovery. Those influences were Crude dropping to $6 losses early and the dollar was up about 100. The event for Friday will be the options that expire for July.
In Wheat this week we saw a severe drop in prices. On Thursday we saw a surprise sell off but later heard that a large hedge fund had apparently liquidated large positions in ag commodities, and we know the influence they have on prices at times. We had been looking for a bottom in the market and today may have been the day.
In Beans this week, we also started out with the weather headline; more rain and some hail in some areas. These weather extremes seem to just keep coming. Monday was the dead line for crop insurance. We talked to an In- House crop insurance agent on Tuesday and from him we got a sense that some producers may push on to get some more acres planted, even though the full coverage insurance date has passed. However, given the rains last week and looking at the rain forecast for the weekend; it is unlikely that many more beans will be able to be planted.
Next week on Thursday, 6/30, we will get some long awaited numbers from NASS/USDA. Quarterly Grain Stocks, Planted Acres, and it will be first notice day for July futures as well. We will look at this and report on it next week.
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